The Contrarian Checklist: How We Evaluate Every Investment

Intro:
At Non-Consensus Alpha, we don’t throw darts or rely on buzz. Every investment we make goes through a rigorous, time-tested checklist designed to uncover hidden upside and avoid risk disguised as opportunity.

Body:
Investing without a framework is gambling. Our process filters noise and emotion, leaving behind clarity and conviction.

Here’s our 7-point Contrarian Checklist:

1. Is this thesis non-consensus—but still right?
   If the market agrees with us, we’re too late.

2. What is the margin of safety?
   Great businesses at great prices are rare. We look for good businesses at great prices.

3. Where’s the asymmetry?
   We want limited downside with significant upside. Risk/reward matters more than raw potential.

4. Does this asset benefit from a misperception?
   Is it being punished for a temporary problem? Does the market misunderstand the story?

5. Are we comfortable owning this long-term?
   We don’t chase trends—we build theses.

6. What are the catalysts?
   What events will make the market recognize the asset’s true value?

7. Would we own more if it dropped 20%?
   If not, we shouldn’t own it at all.

Takeaway:
These questions have saved us from bad investments—and led us to extraordinary ones.

CTA:
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